Journal of Applied Economic Research
ISSN 2712-7435
Modeling of the Tax Base for Property Tax and Income Forecasting for the Irkutsk Region
Sorokina P.G., Leonova O.V., Volchenko L.Yu.
Abstract
Forecasting tax revenues is of particular importance for the treasuries of <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Russia</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s constituent regions and municipalities. Such revenues are directly related to the regions' development prospects on the basis of realizing their own potential, including taxation. The relevance of this work is determined by the requirement to develop the socio-economic territories of municipalities using modern approaches in the field of fiscal forecasting. Property taxes, including corporate property tax, which is one of the stable sources of revenue, have a significant impact on the tax potential of regional and local budgets. The aim of this work is to determine the impact of socio-economic indicators on the tax base formed by corporate property at a municipal level in Irkutsk Region. To achieve the goal, we apply the econometric methods of research, mainly regression analysis. The idea of this approach is to select independent factors (among socio-economic indicators) that affect the value of the resulting, or dependent, variable (the tax base). The investigation uses the following empirical basis: the statistical tax reporting data presented in the "Report on the tax base and the structure of accruals on corporate property tax" in the context of municipal entities as of 01.01.2014 and indicators of municipal entities of the Federal State Statistics Service for 2013. Six economic-mathematical models of multiple regression were constructed during the research. After checking their adequacy, the authors prefered a linear model, based on which point and interval forecasts are constructed. The numerical experiments led to a conclusion that the initial data are not homogeneous, which, apparently, is determined by the large area of Irkutsk Region, the uneven distribution of natural resources and the remoteness of some municipalities. These facts justify grouping municipalities into clusters in order to increase the homogeneity in each group and the adequacy of the model. The authors plan to apply this approach in their further research. The article is devoted to the modeling of the property tax base of organizations and forecasting of tax revenues in the municipalities of Irkutsk Region. The relevance of the investigation is determined by the necessity to improve tax forecasting in the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Russian Federation</st1:place></st1:country-region>. At the first stage of the study, the factors influencing the formation of the tax base were selected. Using the data for 2013, six various mathematical models of multiple regression are constructed. In the preliminary analysis, the following two best models were selected: linear and semilogarithmic ones. In the paper, the authors prefer a linear model, which is used for the point and interval forecasting. Basing on the selected model, a point and interval forecasts are established for the tax base for the property tax of organizations.
Keywords
property tax; taxable base; mathematical modeling; multiple regression; forecasting.
References
1. Cerqueti, R., Coppier, R. (2014). A game theoretical analysis of the impact of income inequality and ethnic diversity on fiscal corruption. Annals of Operations Research, Vol. 243, No. 1-2, 71–87.
2. Wane, W. (2001). The optimal income tax when poverty is a public 'bad'. Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 82, 271–299.
3. Mankiw, N., Weinzierl, M., Yagan, D. (2009). Optimal taxation in theory and practice. Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 23, 147–174.
4. Kokin, A.S., Edronov, A.V. (2010). Primenenie korreliatsionno-regressionnogo analiza v prognozirovanii nalogovykh postuplenii v biudzhet sub"ekta Federatsii (Application of Correlation Analysis in Forecasting Tax Proceeds in Re-gions of the Russian Federation). Vestnik Nizhegorodskogo universiteta im. N.I. Lo-bachevskogo (Vestnik of Lobachevsky University of Nizhni Novgorod), No. 2-1, 233–241.
5. Naletov, M.Iu., Chimitdorzhieva, E.Ts. (2009). Ekonometricheskoe mod-elirovanie nalogovogo potentsiala munitsipal'nykh obrazovanii s pomoshch'iu klaster-protsedur (na primere Respubliki Buriatiia) [Econometric Modelling of Tax Potential of Municipalities Using Cluster Procedures – the case of Buryatia]. Izvestiia IGEA [Bulletin of Irkutsk State Economic Academy], No. 6 (68), 40–42.
6. Dadasheva, Iu.A. (2009). Prognozirovanie postuplenii po imushchestvennym nalogam: metod strukturnogo modelirovaniia [Forecasting Property Tax Revenues: Structural Modelling Method]. Nalogovaia politika i praktika [Tax Policy and Prac-tice], No. 11, 66–70.
7. Minakov, A.V. (2005). Modeli analiza i prognozirovaniia nalogovoi bazy i nalogovykh postuplenii [Models of Tax Base and Tax Revenue Analysis and Fore-casting]. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriia i praktika (Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice), No. 10, 47–52.
8. Animitsa, P.E. (2012). Primenenie metodov prognozirovaniia v tseliakh di-agnostiki imushchestvennykh nalogov // Problemy prognozirovaniia i stsenarnogo modelirovaniia sotsial'no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiia territorial'nykh system. [Pro-ceedings of Young Scientists' School]. Ekaterinburg, Institute of Economics, Urals branch of RAS, 4–10.
9. Kakaulina, M.O. (2016). Assessment of the admissibility of the tax burden on the economy of Crimea and Sevastopol. Journal of Tax Reform, Vol. 2, No. 2, 139–153.
10. Budko, S.A., Fedotov, D.Yu. (2017). World experience and the Russian practice of forming the income of the pension system: the mathematical methods of evaluation. Journal of Tax Reform, Vol. 3, No. 3, 199–215.
11. Mironov, A.A. (2011). Podkhody i metody otsenki nalogovogo potentsiala regiona [Approaches to and methods of assessment of a region's tax potential]. Vo-prosy ekonomiki i prava (Economic and Law Issues), No. 34, 400–404.
12. Pozdniaev, A.S. (2010). Planirovanie i prognozirovanie v sisteme nalo-govogo regulirovaniia (Planning and forecasting in system of tax regulation). Ekonomicheskie i gumanitarnye nauki (Economic and humanitarian sciences), No. 2 (217), 64–68.
13. Vylkova, E.S. (2011). Nalogovoe planirovanie [Tax Planning]. Moscow, Iurait.
14. Vylkova, E.S., Krasavin, V.I. (2011). Formirovanie nalogovykh l'got v sub"ektakh Rossiiskoi Federatsii (na primere SZFO) [Formation of Tax Incentives in the Constituent Regions of Russia (the cast of the North-Western Federal District]. St Petersburg, Personnel Training Centre of the Federal Tax Service.
15. Kireenko, A.P., Orlova, E.N. (2014). Proiavleniia regional'noi nalogovoi politiki v usloviiakh rossiiskogo biudzhetnogo federalizma (Regional Fiscal Policy in the Context of Russian Fiscal Federalism). Region: ekonomika i sotsiologiia (Region: Economics and Sociology), No. 1 (81), 193–217.
16. Kireenko, A.P., Klimova, M.O. (2012). Razvitie nalogooblozheniia indi-vidual'nykh predprinimatelei i bor'ba s ukloneniem ot uplaty nalogov (Improving tax-ation of sole proprietors and measures against tax evasion). Region: ekonomika i sotsiologiia (Region: Economics and Sociology), No. 1 (73), 142–159.
17. Kireenko, A.P., Bykov, S.S. (2012). Izderzhki nalogooblozheniia v Rossiis-koi Federatsii [The Costs of Translation in the Russian Federation]. Irkutsk, Baikal State University of Economics and Law.
18. Eliseeva, I.I. (2012). Ekonometrika [Econometrics]. Moscow, Iurait.
19. Mkhitarian, V.S. (2008). Ekonometrika [Econometrics]. Moscow, Prospekt.
20. Il'ina, A.V., Il'in, A.S. (2015). K voprosu tselesoobraznosti primeneniia ka-dastrovoi stoimosti v kachestve nalogooblagaemoi bazy po raschetu naloga na imushchestvo (On the cadastral value applicability as a tax base for the property tax calculation). Mezhdunarodnyi bukhgalterskii uchet (International Accounting), No. 34 (376), 54–62.
21. Sorokina, P.G. (2017). Otsenka posledstvii vvedeniia nalogooblozheniia po kadastrovoi stoimosti [Implications of Introducing Taxes based on Cadastral Value]. Actual Problems of Tax Policy. Proceedings of the 9th International Scientific Con-ference of Young Tax Experts. Vladivostok, Far Eastern Federal University, 57–60.
22. Sorokina, P.G. (2017). Analiz raspredeleniia naloga na imushchestvo po gorodskim okrugam i munitsipal'nym raionam Irkutskoi oblasti [Analysis of the Dis-tribution of Property Tax Over Urban Districts and Municipalities of Irkutsk Region]. Ekonomika i upravlenie: problemy, resheniia [Economics and Management: Prob-lems and Solutions], Vol. 2, No. 10, 126–131.
23. Sorokina, P.G. (2017). Prognozirovanie dinamiki nalogovoi bazy po nalogu na imushchestvo organizatsii (Forecasting of tax base dynamics for corporate proper-ty tax). Baikal Research Journal, Vol. 8, No. 2. Available at: brj-bguep.ru/reader/article.aspx.
24. Brooks, C. (2002). Introductory Econometrics for Finance. Cambridge, Cambridge Academ, 740. 25. Green,
About Authors
Sorokina Polina Gennadievna – Post-Graduate Student, Senior Lecturer, Department of Mathematics and Econometrics, Baikal State University, Irkutsk, Russia 664003, Irkutsk, Lenin street, 11); e-mail: ermolaeva_polina@mail.ru.
Leonova Olga Vasilievna – Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Department of Mathematics and Econometrics, Baikal State University, Irkutsk, Russia 664003, Irkutsk, Lenin street, 11); e-mail: olga.olgaleonova@yandex.ru.
Volchenko Lubov Yurievna – Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Accounting, Analysis, Statistics and Audit, Vice-Rector for Academic Affairs, Baikal State University, Irkutsk, Russia 664003, Irkutsk, Lenin street, 11); e-mail: VolchenkoLY@bgu.ru.
For citation
Sorokina P.G., Leonova O.V., Volchenko L.Yu. Modeling of the Tax Base for Property Tax and Income Forecasting for the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">Irkutsk</st1:city></st1:place> Region. Bulletin of Ural <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placename w:st="on">Federal</st1:placename> <st1:placetype w:st="on">University</st1:placetype></st1:place>. Series Economics and Management, 2018, Vol. 17, No. 2, 310-328. DOI: 10.15826/vestnik.2018.17.2.014.
Article info
Received February 20, 2018; Accepted March 19, 2018.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2018.17.2.014
Download full text article:
~659 KB, *.pdf
(Uploaded
08.05.2018)
Created / Updated: 2 September 2015 / 20 September 2021
© Federal State Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Education «Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N.Yeltsin»
Remarks?
select the text and press:
Ctrl + Enter
Portal design: Artsofte
Contact us
Rector's Office
Rector, Dr. Victor Koksharov
Tel. +7 (343) 375-45-03, e-mail: rector@urfu.ru
Vice-Rector for International Relations, Dr. Maxim Khomyakov
Tel. +7 (343) 375-46-27, e-mail: Maksim.Khomyakov@urfu.ru